Tesla Doesn’t Hide Early Range Loss — That’s Real Confidence

Initial range reduction is a natural phenomenon commonly observed in electric vehicles. Among Tesla owners, some have reported that the driving range seems to drop more rapidly than expected shortly after vehicle delivery.

This may be the result of Tesla’s design choice to allow early-stage battery degradation to be visible to users. In other words, rather than concealing the initial degradation through software smoothing, Tesla appears to have opted to reflect the actual battery condition as it is.

To better understand this, we developed a degradation model based on long-term real-world driving data. According to the model, driving range declines more rapidly during the early stages, then gradually slows, following a non-linear degradation pattern.

The degradation curve shown below illustrates this model. However, to protect proprietary modeling techniques, the X-axis (representing driving distance) has been intentionally hidden. This is to prevent potential misuse or replication of our internal algorithms and curve-fitting methodology by third parties.

The early-stage drop in range is also closely related to the formation of the SEI (Solid Electrolyte Interphase) layer.The SEI is a naturally occurring protective film inside the battery that stabilizes the electrode surface,but its formation can involve a certain level of initial capacity loss.

Such behavior should not be interpreted as a fault or failure in the battery pack.Rather, it reflects a normal chemical process and the way battery management systems control degradation in electric vehicles.

Model Structure and Interpretation Notes

This degradation model includes three scenarios:

1. A case of relatively fast degradation

2. An average degradation path

3. A well-managed battery scenario

The model does not assume battery failure within Tesla’s warranty period, and even in the fast-degradation scenario, it is designed to remain within Tesla’s warranty criteria, such as mileage thresholds or minimum SOH.

On the other hand, for vehicles that are well-maintained or have relatively high mileage for their age, the model shows that the total range can exceed 300,000 miles (approximately 480,000 km).

This highlights how the speed of battery degradation can vary significantly depending on driving and charging habits.

Note, however, that this model does not yet include calendar aging (i.e., degradation over time). As a result:

• Vehicles with low mileage may appear to degrade more rapidly,

• Whereas those with high mileage may appear to degrade more slowly than average.

This modeling feature has now been added to the Dr.EV app.

However, due to visualization constraints in the app, only up to 100 data points can be displayed, which may cause the non-linear degradation curve to appear linear on the screen.